The Prime Minister's commitment to narrow the 17-year gap between the life expectancy of Indigenous Australians and that of the total population, and to report annually on progress, echoes similar promises made over the 40 years since the referendum gave the Federal Government a national responsibility for Indigenous health. The paper reviews the policy background to this commitment, and examines estimates of Indigenous life expectancy over the period, in order to establish the validity of the estimates, and the likelihood of reduction given past trends. The current situation represents a dual system failure: a failure of the national health system to address Indigenous disadvantage, and a failure of the national statistical system to produce the data needed to guide policy and monitor change.

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